Cash Flow Forecast — Capital-Intensive Business
Rebuilding the cash forecast so the CFO can see runway, working capital, and financing headroom on the same page — every week, not every quarter.
Typical engagement
Forecast horizons
Recent extension achieved
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The Situation
Cash is the constraint, but the forecast is a guess. The production cycle ties up working capital. Capex is lumpy. Customer payment behaviour varies by season and by segment. The financing structure has covenants, drawdown schedules, and headroom that nobody models forward properly.
The CFO knows roughly where the business will be in three months and has no real visibility beyond six. Conversations with the bank are reactive. The board pack shows a cash position, not a cash trajectory. When a supplier asks for a payment plan or a customer asks for extended terms, the answer is instinct, not analysis.
Meanwhile the operational decisions that drive cash — inventory levels, production scheduling, capex timing, customer credit terms — are taken without the cash model in the room.
What we build
A cash flow forecast that’s built to be used weekly, not produced quarterly.
The model has two horizons. A 13-week operational forecast at line-item granularity — every major customer receipt, every supplier payment, payroll, taxes, capex drawdown, financing movements. And a rolling 18-month strategic view that ties the operational forecast into the P&L plan, the balance sheet, and the financing structure.
Working capital is modelled explicitly: DSO by customer segment, DIO by product line, DPO by supplier category. Capex is modelled by project, with commitment dates and payment milestones separated. Financing lines are modelled drawdown-by-drawdown, with covenant headroom tracked as an output.
The model produces scenarios as standard — base, downside, stretch — so the CFO can walk into the board or the bank with a range, not a point estimate.
What you get
A cash position the CFO understands in detail and can defend. Recent work has identified working capital and timing levers that extended runway from 9 months to 16, without any new financing.
A different conversation with the bank, the board, and the sponsor. Cash gets discussed forward, not retrospectively. Covenant headroom is known weeks in advance, not discovered.
Operational decisions made with cash in the room. Production scheduling, capex sequencing, and customer credit policy stop being purely operational decisions and start being treated as cash decisions.
A model the finance team can run themselves, weekly, without rebuilding it each cycle.
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