Revenue Forecasting Agent — Services Business
Combining pipeline, contracts, and historical conversion behaviour into a forecast accurate enough to drive hiring, target-setting, and sponsor commitments.
Typical engagement
Across stages, channels, owners
Forecast accuracy in recent work
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The Situation
The revenue forecast is a number, but nobody on the leadership team really believes it. Sales is forecasting from pipeline. Finance is forecasting from actuals plus a haircut. The CEO is averaging. The sponsor wants a number they can take to their LPs.
The cost of being wrong is operational. Headcount is being planned against the forecast. Project pipelines are being scheduled against it. If revenue lands materially below the number, the cost base is wrong and margin erodes fast. If it lands above, the business has under-hired and is leaving capacity, and margin, on the table.
Historical conversion patterns exist in the CRM. Stage-by-stage drop-off behaviour exists. Cycle times by deal size exist. None of it is feeding the forecast.
What we build
A forecasting agent that learns from the business’s own conversion behaviour and produces a forward view the leadership team can stand behind.
The agent ingests pipeline data (every opportunity, every stage transition, every value change) and actuals (every contract signed, every revenue line recognised). It learns the conversion rates that actually apply — by stage, by deal size, by segment, by owner — rather than relying on the optimistic weighted-pipeline number sales reports against.
It produces a base forecast, a downside, and a stretch view, each grounded in observed behaviour rather than in assumed conversion rates. It updates as the pipeline moves. It explains its own forecast — which deals are driving the number, which historical patterns it’s applying, where the uncertainty sits.
We hand it over with documentation, a feedback loop for the sales and finance teams to correct it, and a process for retraining as the business evolves.
What you get
A forecast the leadership team can plan against. Recent work has landed within around 3% of actual revenue — close enough that hiring, capacity, and sponsor commitments can be made against it with confidence.
Earlier visibility on where the year is heading. The forecast updates as pipeline behaviour changes, so the gap between the plan and the trajectory shows up in weeks, not in quarters.
A different conversation between sales and finance. The forecast isn’t sales’ number that finance argues with — it’s a model both functions feed and both functions trust.
A defensible number for the sponsor and the board. Built on the business’s actual conversion behaviour, explainable to a fund manager who will probe.
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